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1.57 billion trips forecast, and a 3% swing away from long-haul

Qurexa Editorial Team5 November 20268 min read 0 0
1.57 billion trips forecast, and a 3% swing away from long-haul

What happened

World Travel Market London 2026 opened at the ExCeL centre in early November, and with it came the WTM Global Travel Report, produced with the analysts Tourism Economics. The headline forecast is a record. The report expects 1.57 billion international overnight arrivals in 2026, with arrivals in Europe up by about 5%. Underneath that record, though, the pattern of travel is shifting. The report forecasts that trips between regions - long-haul travel - will fall by 3%, while trips within the same region rise by 3%. In other words, people are still travelling, but closer to home. The shift towards short-haul was reported as especially noticeable in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa. The report also found that budgets are being reallocated rather than trips cancelled. Interest in both luxury and value-led travel is growing at the same time, which sounds contradictory but reflects people spending more on some parts of a trip and less on others. On what people want from a holiday, the findings were striking. Around 60% of travellers surveyed said they wanted "luxury" holidays - but Sean Morgan of Tourism Economics described what they meant by luxury as being about "access not excess". And 58% of international travellers said they had gone abroad specifically to attend an event in the previous two years. On technology, 36% of people said they would now trust AI to complete a travel booking. The show also saw an initiative launched to help hospitality businesses improve the accessibility information they publish.

Why this matters

This is an industry report rather than a government announcement, so it will not change any rules. What it does is tell you where the travel industry thinks demand is going - and that shapes what gets offered, and at what price, over the next year or two. The short-haul shift is the finding with the clearest practical consequence. If more people are travelling within their own region, expect more capacity, more competition and more deals on European routes from the UK, and relatively less on long-haul. It also tends to mean long-haul fares hold up better, because there is less of it being sold. The event-driven travel figure - 58% having travelled abroad specifically for an event - explains something many travellers have noticed. Accommodation prices around concerts, football matches and festivals have become extreme in some cities. If more than half of international travellers are planning trips around events, that demand is not a quirk; it is a structural feature of the market now. The redefinition of luxury as "access not excess" is worth understanding too. It suggests people are paying for things like skipping queues, better timing, more space and better guides, rather than for marble bathrooms. Accessibility and comfort, in other words, rather than opulence. And the accessibility initiative deserves more attention than it will get. Poor accessibility information is one of the biggest practical barriers to travel for disabled people and people with health conditions - not the absence of facilities so much as being unable to find out in advance whether they exist.

What the evidence actually says

We want to be careful here, because industry reports are produced by an industry with an interest in optimism. What is reasonably solid: the report was produced with Tourism Economics, a recognised forecasting firm, and launched at the sector's main annual trade event. The forecast of 1.57 billion international overnight arrivals in 2026, with Europe up about 5%, is the kind of figure these forecasters produce routinely and revise as data comes in. Treat it as a well-informed projection, not a measurement. What is survey data, with the usual limits: the 60% wanting luxury holidays, the 58% travelling for events, and the 36% who would trust AI with a booking all come from a survey of travellers. Surveys of this kind depend heavily on who was asked and how the question was worded. In particular, "luxury" means different things to different people - which the report itself effectively concedes by redefining it as "access not excess". A number that needs reinterpreting to make sense is a number to hold loosely. One figure we would treat with real caution: a reported 3,500% year-on-year jump in generative AI traffic to US travel sites was cited at the event, but one source dates that figure to July 2025. A percentage that large, from a low base, over an unclear period, in another country, tells you very little useful about booking a holiday from the UK. We mention it because you may see it quoted, not because we think it means much. What we cannot verify: sources differ slightly on the detail of several figures, and we have not read the full report, which is an industry publication rather than an open-access document. What this report is not: a forecast of prices. It describes where demand is moving. Prices depend on capacity, fuel costs, exchange rates and competition as well as demand, so a shift towards short-haul does not automatically mean cheaper flights to Spain. And a piece of context from elsewhere. In October 2026, the travel association ABTA reported that the number of Britons taking holidays had returned to pre-pandemic levels, but that rising costs may mean the numbers have peaked, and that people are booking later in the hope of better deals. That independent finding sits consistently with the WTM report's picture of reallocated rather than abandoned spending.

Practical advice

If you are planning a European trip, the short-haul shift means more competition on those routes - but also busier popular destinations. Booking shoulder season, in spring or autumn, tends to get you better prices and fewer crowds than the peak weeks. If you are planning long-haul, a forecast 3% fall in inter-regional trips means airlines may be working harder for your business on some routes. It is worth comparing more than you normally would, and checking alternative departure airports. If you are travelling for an event, book accommodation as early as you possibly can. With 58% of international travellers reporting event-driven trips, prices around major events rise sharply and early. Booking the event first and the hotel later is how people end up paying three times the normal rate. Be cautious with AI booking tools. A third of people say they would trust one, but you remain responsible for the booking. Always check the actual confirmation from the airline or hotel, verify names, dates and times yourself, and make sure you understand the cancellation terms. If something goes wrong, your protection comes from the airline, hotel or travel operator - and from your payment method - not from the tool that made the booking. Book through an ABTA member or an ATOL-protected package where you can. If a company fails, that protection is what gets your money back or gets you home, and several UK travel firms have ceased trading during 2026. On accessibility and health: if you have a condition, a disability, or mobility needs, ask specific questions in writing before booking, and keep the answers. The new accessibility initiative is aimed at exactly this gap, but it will take time to make a difference. If you take regular medicines, plan them into the trip properly. Carry enough for the whole journey plus a few days' margin, keep them in your hand luggage in original labelled packaging, take a copy of your prescription, and check whether your medicine is legal at your destination - some ordinary UK medicines are restricted elsewhere. Your pharmacist can advise, and it is a short conversation that prevents a serious problem.

What to know

The WTM Global Travel Report, launched at World Travel Market London 2026 with Tourism Economics, forecasts a record 1.57 billion international overnight arrivals in 2026, with European arrivals up around 5%. The pattern is shifting towards shorter trips: inter-regional travel forecast to fall 3%, same-region travel to rise 3%. People are reallocating budgets rather than cancelling trips, with interest growing in both luxury and value travel. Survey findings: around 60% want "luxury" holidays, though defined as access rather than excess; 58% had travelled abroad specifically for an event in the past two years; 36% would trust AI to complete a booking. Read the survey figures loosely - they depend on wording and sample - and treat the 1.57 billion as a projection rather than a measurement. A widely quoted 3,500% rise in AI traffic to travel sites appears to date from July 2025 and tells you little. Practical takeaways: book event trips very early, book through ATOL or ABTA protection, check AI-made bookings yourself, and ask accessibility questions in writing before you pay. Sources: WTM London, 'WTM London 2026 opens with trends, AI and accessibility', November 2026, https://www.wtm.com/portfolio/en-gb/blog/press-releases/wtm-london-2026-opens-with-trends-ai-and-accessibility.html | Euronews, 'Global travel to hit record 1.57 billion arrivals in 2026, with European arrivals up 5%', 3 November 2026, https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/03/global-travel-to-hit-record-157-billion-arrivals-in-2026-with-european-arrivals-up-5 | Breaking Travel News, 'Short-haul shifts and rising value-seeking reshape global travel outlook for 2026, WTM report finds', November 2026, https://www.breakingtravelnews.com/news/article/short-haul-shifts-and-rising-value-seeking-reshape-global-travel-outlook-fo/ This article is for general information. It is not legal, financial or travel advice, and it does not replace guidance from a qualified professional.

#travel trends#WTM London#tourism#short-haul travel#accessibility#travel booking

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