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6.0% this year, and nearly one in ten by 2030 if nothing changes

Qurexa Editorial Team12 October 20266 min read 0 0
6.0% this year, and nearly one in ten by 2030 if nothing changes

What happened

An independent think tank has published figures showing that the share of pupils in England with an Education, Health and Care Plan rose faster this year than in any year since at least 2010. The analysis is in Performance Tracker 2026, published by the Institute for Government on 7 October 2026. The schools chapter was written by Amber Dellar. An Education, Health and Care Plan, usually shortened to EHCP, is a legal document. It sets out a child's special educational needs and the support that must be provided. Unlike ordinary school support, the duties in an EHCP are enforceable. The numbers tell a clear story. For years the share of pupils with an EHCP sat at around 2.8%. It began rising in 2017 and reached 5.3% in 2025. This year it went to 6.0%. That 2026 figure is the largest annual increase since at least 2010, and it is above the government's own central projection of 5.8%. The report says that if current growth continues, nearly one in ten pupils could have an EHCP by 2030. The government's projection has the share rising until 2030 and then falling back to around 5% by 2035. Two other findings stand out. Fewer than half of pupils with special educational needs say they enjoy school. And the average secondary pupil with an EHCP misses nearly a day of school every week. The Institute for Government's assessment is blunt: on most measures, SEND is moving in the wrong direction.

Why this matters

This is the issue that quietly shapes everything else in English schools, and the funding figure explains why. The report estimates that SEND pressures could absorb about two-thirds of the increase in schools funding over this parliament. Two-thirds. Whatever else a school might want to do with extra money, most of the new money is already committed. That has knock-on effects everywhere. It shows up in the disadvantage gap, which the report says is widening rather than closing. It shows up in what schools can offer beyond the core timetable. The attendance finding deserves its own attention. Missing nearly a day a week adds up to around 38 days a year, or roughly two months of school. A child with an EHCP is a child the system has formally recognised as needing more support, and they are getting substantially less time in school than their classmates. And 'fewer than half enjoy school' is not a soft measure. Children who dislike school attend less, learn less and leave earlier. Enjoyment is an early indicator of almost every outcome that follows. For parents going through the EHCP process, the rising numbers also explain the experience of it: more applications, the same assessment capacity, and longer waits.

What the evidence actually says

A few things need care here, because SEND figures are easy to misread. The rise in EHCPs is not the same as a rise in children with special educational needs. It is a rise in children who have a legal plan. Those are different things. Some of the increase reflects better identification, some reflects parents pursuing a plan because ordinary school support is not enough, and some may reflect genuine increases in need. The report does not claim to separate those strands. The 'nearly one in ten by 2030' figure is a projection based on current growth continuing. Projections of this kind are useful warnings, not forecasts. The government's own projection is different: it expects the rise to continue to 2030 and then reverse, falling back to about 5% by 2035. Both projections rest on assumptions, and the honest position is that nobody knows. The two-thirds funding figure is also an estimate of pressure, not a line in a budget. On the wider schools picture, the report is mixed rather than uniformly gloomy. It notes that absence overall is falling at the fastest sustained rate since the mid-2010s, and that teacher numbers are rising: at the current rate roughly 20,000 teachers could be added in target phases by the end of the parliament, against a goal of 6,500. So the fair reading is that some parts of the system are improving while SEND specifically is not.

Practical advice

If you are a parent trying to get support for your child, a few things genuinely help. Start with the school's own SEND support before an EHCP. Schools have a duty to provide support through what is called SEN support, and a graduated approach of assess, plan, do and review. Ask to see what is in place and ask for it in writing. If you need to apply for an EHCP, you can request an assessment yourself. You do not need the school to do it for you. The local authority has 6 weeks to decide whether to assess, and the whole process has a 20-week statutory limit from request to final plan. Note those dates and keep them. Keep a paper trail. Dates of meetings, what was agreed, what happened next. Most successful appeals rest on records that parents kept themselves. If you are turned down, you have the right to appeal to the SEND Tribunal, and mediation is available. Appeal rates are high and so are success rates, which tells you something about first decisions. Get independent help. Every local authority in England must have a free, impartial SENDIASS service for exactly this. IPSEA is a national charity offering free legal advice on SEND law. If attendance is the problem, say so early and ask for a plan rather than letting absences accumulate. Schools can put in place part-time timetables, reduced days or alternative arrangements, but only if the conversation happens.

What to know

The Institute for Government's Performance Tracker 2026, published 7 October 2026, found the share of pupils in England with an EHCP rose to 6.0% this year, the biggest annual increase since at least 2010 and above the government's projection of 5.8%. The historic level was around 2.8%, rising from 2017 to reach 5.3% in 2025. If current growth continues, nearly one in ten pupils could have an EHCP by 2030, though the government expects the rise to reverse after 2030. SEND pressures could absorb around two-thirds of the schools funding increase this parliament. Fewer than half of pupils with SEND say they enjoy school, and the average secondary pupil with an EHCP misses nearly a day of school each week. The report's overall judgement is that SEND is moving in the wrong direction on most measures, while absence overall and teacher numbers are improving. For parents: ask what SEN support is already in place, request an EHCP assessment yourself if needed, keep dated records, use your free local SENDIASS service or IPSEA, and raise attendance problems early. Sources: Institute for Government, "Performance Tracker 2026: Schools" by Amber Dellar, 7 October 2026, https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/performance-tracker-2026/schools ; GOV.UK, "Children with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)", https://www.gov.uk/children-with-special-educational-needs ; IPSEA, free legal advice on SEND law, https://www.ipsea.org.uk/ This article is for general information and is not legal advice. It does not replace advice from a doctor, pharmacist or other qualified healthcare professional.

#SEND#EHCP#school funding#Institute for Government#special educational needs#attendance

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