Flu is still low, but higher than the last four Septembers
What happened
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published the first winter respiratory virus surveillance report of the season. It came out on 8 October 2026 and covers week 40, which ran from 28 September to 4 October. The headline is a mixed one, and worth reading carefully. Flu is still at what UKHSA calls baseline levels. That means low. But activity is increasing, and September activity was higher than the same point in all four previous winter seasons. The numbers behind that: the proportion of tests coming back positive for flu rose to 6.5%, up from 5% the week before. Hospital admissions for flu were 1.97 per 100,000 people. Because this formal surveillance starts in week 40, there is no week-on-week comparison for the hospital figure yet. UKHSA says the increase is being driven by young adults. In England, the flu being found is an equal mix of two subtypes, A(H3N2) and A(H1N1). COVID-19 is also rising, and is above baseline but at low levels. Positivity went up to 9.1% from 7.9%. Hospital admissions rose to 2.04 per 100,000 from 1.75. Intensive care admissions stayed very low, at 0.06 per 100,000. Rhinovirus, which causes many common colds, has started to fall after a sharp rise. RSV remains at baseline with very low levels circulating. Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said: "Flu levels are increasing with the possibility of an early flu season."
Why this matters
An early flu season is not just a scheduling detail. It changes who is protected when the wave arrives. Vaccines take around two weeks to build up protection. If flu arrives in November rather than January, then people who were planning to get round to it at some point may be caught out. The gap between "I'll book it soon" and "I'm protected" is the part that matters. There is also a staffing angle that quietly affects everybody. UKHSA notes the current rise is driven by young adults. Young adults are the people staffing hospitals, schools, buses and shops. A wave that hits working-age people hard puts pressure on services even when those individuals recover fully. And the timing is genuinely tight this year. If you are eligible and have not booked, this is the window where booking actually changes your outcome rather than just ticking a box. There is one more reason to pay attention, and it is the honest complication in this story. UKHSA has flagged that a strain of A(H1N1) which has "drifted" from this year's vaccine component has been seen at low levels in Europe and, recently, in the UK. Drifted means the virus has changed slightly from the version the vaccine was designed around.
What the evidence actually says
That drifted strain needs careful handling, because it is the sort of fact that gets turned into "the flu jab doesn't work". That is not what the data says. UKHSA is explicit that it is too early to know how widely the drifted strain will circulate, or how well the vaccine will work against it. Those are open questions, not settled bad news. What we do have is last season as a guide, and last season is instructive. Last winter also had a drifted virus and an earlier start. Despite that, overall cases and estimated deaths were lower than the year before. Modelling by UKHSA indicates that the vaccination programme in England last winter prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and around 7,000 deaths. Those are estimates from models, not a direct count, and they should be read as such. But they give a sense of scale: even in a season with a drifted strain, vaccination did a very large amount of work. It also helps to know that the flu vaccine is not aimed at a single target. Dr Lopez Bernal pointed out that the vaccine helps protect against all three flu virus types in circulation. A drift in one component does not switch the whole thing off. On COVID-19, the picture is reassuring in an important way. Dr Alex Allen, also a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said of the circulating strains: "We're also not seeing any evidence that these are making people more ill or spreading faster than before." The strains in circulation, including one called XFG, are closely related to strains that have been around for over a year. So the honest reading of the evidence is this. Flu is early and rising, but still low. One flu strain has drifted and we do not yet know what that will mean. Vaccination has a strong recent track record even in imperfect seasons. COVID is rising gently and does not appear to be more severe.
Qurexa perspective
We deliver prescriptions across Lincolnshire, so winter is the season where we see the human version of these numbers. The pattern is familiar. When a virus wave arrives, the people who struggle most are not always the ones who are most unwell. They are often the ones who simply cannot get out. A chest infection on top of arthritis means a trip to the pharmacy is suddenly impossible. A household where everyone is ill at once means nobody can collect anything. Two practical things make a real difference, and both are easier to arrange before you are ill than during. The first is not running your repeat medicines down to the last few days. If you order when you have a week or so left, a few days of disruption does not become a crisis. The second is knowing in advance how you would get medicine to your door if you could not leave the house. For some people that is a neighbour. For some it is a delivery service like ours. It does not matter which, as long as it is decided before you need it. We will say the obvious thing too: we deliver medicines, we do not give vaccines. For your flu or COVID vaccination, your GP practice or a local vaccinating pharmacy is the right place to go.
Practical advice
Check whether you are eligible, rather than assuming. Eligibility covers more people than most assume, and it changes between years. You can check your status and book a free NHS flu vaccination through the NHS App, online, or by contacting your GP practice or a local pharmacy. If you are eligible, book now rather than later. With an early season possible, the two weeks the vaccine needs to work is the whole argument for not waiting. Do both in one trip if you can. Many people eligible for a flu vaccine this autumn are also eligible for a COVID-19 booster, and often these can be given at the same appointment. Ask when you book. If you care for someone vulnerable, get vaccinated yourself if you are eligible. The point is not only protecting yourself. It is not being the person who brings flu into the house. Do the unglamorous basics. Wash your hands, catch coughs and sneezes in a tissue, and stay away from vulnerable people if you are unwell. These sound like posters from 2020 because they work. Order repeat prescriptions with time to spare, especially inhalers and heart or diabetes medicines. Illness is exactly when you do not want to be chasing a prescription. And do not read the drifted-strain news as a reason to skip vaccination. On the evidence we have, that would be the wrong conclusion to draw.
What to know
UKHSA's first winter report of the season shows flu rising but still at baseline levels, with positivity at 6.5% and hospital admissions at 1.97 per 100,000. September flu activity was higher than in the previous four winters, and the rise is driven by young adults. An early season is possible. A drifted A(H1N1) strain has been detected at low levels in Europe and the UK. It is too early to know how far it will spread or how well the vaccine will match it. Last winter also had a drifted strain and an early start, and UKHSA modelling estimates vaccination in England still prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths. COVID-19 is above baseline at low levels, with no sign that current strains are more severe or spreading faster. RSV is very low. Rhinovirus is falling. The single most useful action: if you are eligible, book your free vaccination now, because protection takes about two weeks to build. Sources: UKHSA (GOV.UK), 'Flu levels low at start of season but higher than previous 4 years', 8 October 2026, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/flu-levels-low-at-start-of-season-but-higher-than-previous-4-years; UKHSA, 'National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2026 to 2027 season', week 40 report published 8 October 2026, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2026-to-2027-season; NHS, 'Flu vaccine', https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/flu-vaccine/. This article is for general information and does not replace advice from a doctor, pharmacist or other qualified healthcare professional. If you are unsure whether a vaccine is right for you, or you have had a reaction to one before, speak to your GP practice or pharmacist.
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