Flu has started early this year, and one vaccine strain has drifted
What happened
On 8 October 2026 the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) published the first weekly winter virus report of the season. It covers week 40, which ran from 28 September to 4 October 2026. Two things in it stand out. The first is timing. Flu is still at what scientists call "baseline" levels, which simply means very low. But flu activity through September was higher than at the same point in each of the last four winters. In the week to 4 October, 6.5% of people tested for flu tested positive. The week before, it was 5%. Flu hospital admissions were 1.97 per 100,000 people. The second is the virus itself. A World Health Organization (WHO) report has flagged a flu A(H1N1) strain that has "drifted" away from the version used in this year's vaccine. It has been found at low levels in Europe and in Britain. The rise is being driven mainly by young adults, and especially by people aged 18 to 24. UKHSA has suggested this may be linked to students returning to university, and to a late wave of flu in the southern hemisphere. Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at UKHSA, said "now is the time for those eligible to get vaccinated". His colleague Dr Alex Allen put it more bluntly: "Don't risk it, get the vaccine and give yourself the best protection."
Why this matters
An early start to the flu season is not the same thing as a bad flu season. It is worth saying that clearly, because the two often get muddled. What an early start does change is timing. A flu vaccine takes about two weeks to give you full protection. If flu arrives in November rather than January, those two weeks of waiting matter far more than they usually would. Booking in late November would normally be fine. This year it might not be. That matters most for the people flu hits hardest: people over 65, people with long-term conditions such as asthma, diabetes or heart disease, people who are pregnant, and people whose immune system is weak. Flu is also not arriving on its own. In the same week, covid activity rose too. Positivity went up to 9.1% from 7.9%, and covid hospital admissions rose to 2.04 per 100,000 from 1.75. There is better news elsewhere in the report. RSV, which can be serious in babies and older people, is still at baseline. Rhinovirus, the main cause of the common cold, has started to fall after a sharp rise.
What the evidence actually says
This is the part worth slowing down for, because "drifted strain" sounds alarming and the evidence is more reassuring than the phrase suggests. Flu viruses change all the time. Scientists call this antigenic drift. The WHO has to decide which strains go into each year's vaccine months before the season begins, so the virus has plenty of time to carry on changing after that decision is made. Some drift happens most years. It is normal, not a surprise. A drifted strain does not mean the vaccine stops working. Flu vaccines usually still prevent serious illness even when the circulating virus is not a close match. Stopping people becoming severely ill is a different and easier job than stopping every infection. There is a recent example. Last winter a drifted A(H3N2) strain, known as subclade K, appeared after the vaccine recipe had already been set. That season also started early. The vaccine still worked. Vaccinated children were 65% to 70% less likely to attend or be admitted to hospital with flu. Vaccinated adults were 20% to 30% less likely. Across the season as a whole, total flu activity and deaths were lower than the year before, despite the earlier start. UKHSA modelling estimates that England's vaccination programme prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and about 7,000 deaths last winter. This year's vaccine covers all three main types of flu: A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and influenza B. Subtyping in England so far shows roughly an equal split between A(H3N2) and A(H1N1). And here is the honest caveat. It is too early to say whether the drifted virus will spread widely here, or what it will do to how well the vaccine works. Early-season figures are based on far fewer positive tests than you see at the peak of winter, so they move around easily. UKHSA says it will keep tracking the drifted strain all winter, and will watch for any other strain becoming more common.
Qurexa perspective
Qurexa delivers prescriptions and groceries across Lincolnshire, and many of our customers are in exactly the groups this vaccine is aimed at: people over 65, people managing long-term conditions, and people who find getting out of the house difficult. We want to be straight about what we do and do not do. We do not give flu jabs. Those come from your GP surgery, a community pharmacy, your maternity service or your employer. What we can help with is the less glamorous part. Flu is harder on you if your usual conditions are not well controlled, and that depends on actually having your medicines and taking them. If an inhaler, insulin or a heart tablet runs low because getting to the pharmacy was difficult in cold or wet weather, that is a small problem in September and a bigger one in a flu-heavy December. If you already manage a long-term condition carefully, a flu jab is the same kind of sensible, ordinary step you are taking anyway.
Practical advice
First, check whether you can get a free NHS flu vaccine. You can if you are: - aged 65 or over, including if you turn 65 by 31 March 2027 - aged 18 to 64 with certain long-term health conditions, such as breathing, heart, kidney or liver conditions, diabetes, or a learning disability - pregnant, at any stage of pregnancy - living in a care home - the main carer for an older or disabled person, or getting carer's allowance - living with someone who has a weakened immune system - aged 16 or over and sleeping rough, or staying in a homeless hostel or night shelter - a frontline health or social care worker, usually through your employer Second, book it now rather than later. You can use the NHS App or the NHS website, or ask your GP surgery or a local pharmacy. If you already know you are eligible, do not wait for a reminder letter to arrive. Third, sort out the children. Most school-aged children are vaccinated at school by local immunisation teams, so return the consent form when it comes home. If your child misses the school session, community clinics are available. From 1 December 2026, children from Reception to Year 11 who were not vaccinated at school can get the vaccine at a pharmacy instead. Fourth, if you are also eligible for a covid vaccine, get that too. Covid is rising, and the people at most risk of serious illness from it are largely the same people most at risk from flu. Fifth, check your repeat prescriptions. Know how many days of your regular medicines you have left, and order before you get down to the last few. The final date for a flu vaccine this season is 31 March 2027. But a deadline in March is not the point. Protection is only useful if you have it before flu reaches you, and this year flu has started early.
What to know
UKHSA published its first winter virus report of the season on 8 October 2026, covering 28 September to 4 October. Flu is still at baseline, meaning very low, but September activity was higher than at the same point in each of the last four winters, and positivity rose to 6.5% from 5%. The rise is driven mainly by 18 to 24 year olds. Covid is rising too. RSV remains very low. A WHO report has flagged a drifted A(H1N1) strain, found at low levels in Europe and Britain. Drift is normal, and flu vaccines usually still prevent serious illness even when the match is not close. Last winter, with a different drifted strain, vaccinated children were 65% to 70% less likely and vaccinated adults 20% to 30% less likely to end up in hospital with flu. It is too early to know how this season will turn out. The practical message is simple. If you are eligible, book your free vaccine now, because it takes about two weeks to work. Sources: UK Health Security Agency, "Flu levels low at start of season but higher than previous 4 years", 8 October 2026, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/flu-levels-low-at-start-of-season-but-higher-than-previous-4-years; UK Health Security Agency, "Are we seeing an early flu season? What we know so far about this year's strains", 8 October 2026, https://ukhsa.blog.gov.uk/2026/10/08/are-we-seeing-an-early-flu-season-what-we-know-so-far-about-this-years-strains/; UK Health Security Agency, "Latest UKHSA weekly winter virus surveillance data", 8 October 2026, https://www.gov.uk/government/news/latest-ukhsa-weekly-winter-virus-surveillance-data; NHS, "Flu vaccine", last reviewed 29 September 2026, https://www.nhs.uk/vaccinations/flu-vaccine/ This article is for general information and does not replace advice from a doctor, pharmacist or other qualified healthcare professional. If you are not sure whether the flu vaccine is right for you, or you have questions about your own medicines or conditions, speak to your GP or pharmacist.
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