1.6 million people tracked: a third hit kidney, heart or fatal trouble within five years
What happened
Research being presented at the annual meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD), held in Milan from 28 September to 2 October 2026, has put a hard number on what a type 2 diabetes diagnosis can mean over the following decade. The researchers analysed records from more than 1.6 million patients in the United States. They followed what happened after a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes, looking at three outcomes together: developing chronic kidney disease, developing heart failure, or dying. Within the first five years after diagnosis, the combined risk of one of those three things happening was 33% on average - a third of patients. Over ten years, it rose to 55%. The researchers' own conclusion is not that this is inevitable. It is that these findings show why early, proactive and more holistic management of type 2 diabetes matters - in other words, that the years immediately after diagnosis are the ones where there is most to play for. The findings were released to the media on 26 September 2026, ahead of the conference.
Why this matters
Type 2 diabetes is often explained to people as a blood sugar problem. That is true but incomplete, and the incompleteness causes harm. Raised blood glucose damages small blood vessels over time. The kidneys are made almost entirely of small blood vessels, which is why kidney disease follows diabetes so often. The heart has to work against stiffer, more damaged arteries, which is part of why heart failure follows too. So when someone is told they have type 2 diabetes, they are not being told about one organ. They are being told about a process that, left alone, works on several. In the UK this is not a niche issue. Diabetes UK estimates that almost 6 million people in the UK are living with diabetes, with more than 4.7 million diagnosed and around 1.3 million more thought to have type 2 diabetes without knowing it. Around 90% of diagnosed diabetes is type 2. The figure that should stick is the gap between five years and ten: 33% rising to 55%. Most of the extra risk arrives in the second half of that decade. That is what makes the first few years after diagnosis so valuable. It is the window where medicines, blood pressure control, weight, activity and smoking all still have most of their power. There is a positive side to that arithmetic which is easy to miss. If a third of people met one of these outcomes within five years, two-thirds did not. And the difference between those groups is not luck alone.
What the evidence actually says
Some care is needed with a number this big and this frightening. First, it is a combined figure. It bundles together developing chronic kidney disease, developing heart failure, and dying from any cause. Those are very different events. Early-stage chronic kidney disease picked up on a blood test is not the same as dying, and grouping them into one percentage makes the headline number much larger than any single outcome would be. Second, this is observational research on health records. It describes what happened to a very large group of people. It does not run an experiment, so it cannot on its own prove what would have happened had those people been treated differently. Third, these are US patients, in a health system with different access to care, different prescribing patterns and different rates of obesity and insurance coverage from the UK. The direction of travel is likely to be similar here. The exact percentages may not be. Fourth, the data covers people after diagnosis. People who are diagnosed late - who have already had high blood sugar for years without knowing - start from a worse position, and that will be baked into the numbers. Finally, this is conference research. It has been released as a presentation, not yet as a fully peer-reviewed journal paper. What it is good evidence for is scale: across 1.6 million people, serious kidney and heart outcomes after a type 2 diagnosis are common, not rare, and they accumulate steadily with time.
Qurexa perspective
Our day job is getting prescriptions to people's doors, and studies like this one are a reminder of why that job is not just logistics. The medicines that protect the kidneys and the heart in type 2 diabetes only work if they are actually taken, consistently, for years. Not for a fortnight after a scary appointment. For years. That is exactly the kind of medicine that slips. It usually makes you feel no different. There is no immediate reward for taking it and no immediate punishment for missing it. The consequences show up quietly, on a blood test, a decade later. This is where the practical stuff matters more than motivation. Running out because a repeat prescription was not ordered in time. Not being able to get to the pharmacy. Losing track after a hospital stay changed the list. These are the ordinary reasons people end up with gaps, and none of them are about willpower. Prescription delivery and adherence support exist to remove those friction points. If getting to a pharmacy is hard for you or for someone you care for, that is worth solving before it becomes a gap in treatment. And if you are managing type 2 diabetes, your community pharmacist is one of the most accessible clinicians you have. No appointment needed, and they can check your medicines, talk through side effects and tell you when something needs escalating to your GP.
Practical advice
If you or someone close to you has type 2 diabetes, these are the things that carry the most weight, based on established NHS care rather than on this study alone. Go to your annual reviews. The NHS offers a set of routine diabetes checks, including blood tests for kidney function, a urine test for protein, blood pressure, cholesterol, weight, foot checks and eye screening. These exist specifically to catch kidney and heart problems early, when there is still time to act. Missing them is the single easiest mistake to avoid. Take the eye screening appointment seriously even though your eyes feel fine. That is the point of it. Know your blood pressure. Blood pressure control does an enormous amount of the work in protecting kidneys, and it is easy to measure. Do not stop a medicine because you feel well on it. Feeling well on it is the medicine working. If you want to stop or change something, talk to your GP or pharmacist first. If you smoke, stopping does more for your kidneys and heart than almost anything else available. Free NHS stop smoking services exist in most areas. Movement counts even when it is modest. Walking, gardening and housework all count, and regular small amounts beat occasional bursts. If you have symptoms such as swelling in the ankles, breathlessness when lying flat, or a sudden change in how often you pass urine, get these checked rather than waiting for your next review.
What to know
Research from more than 1.6 million patients, presented at the EASD annual meeting in Milan, found a 33% combined risk of chronic kidney disease, heart failure or death within five years of a type 2 diabetes diagnosis, rising to 55% within ten. It is a combined figure covering three very different outcomes, it comes from US health records, and it is observational conference research - so treat it as a measure of scale rather than a personal prediction. The practical message from the researchers is about timing: the years straight after diagnosis are when treatment, blood pressure control and routine checks do the most good. In the UK, the annual diabetes review is the mechanism that already exists to do this. Attending it is the step that matters. Sources: Medical Xpress, 'Kidney disease, heart failure or death risk climbs to 55% 10 years after type 2 diabetes diagnosis', 26 September 2026, https://medicalxpress.com/news/2026-09-kidney-disease-heart-failure-death.html; European Association for the Study of Diabetes, Annual Meeting 2026, Milan, 28 September to 2 October 2026, https://www.easd.org/; Diabetes UK, 'How many people in the UK have diabetes?', https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about-us/about-the-charity/our-strategy/statistics. This article is for general information and does not replace advice from a doctor, pharmacist or other qualified healthcare professional.
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